THE PREDICTABLE REVENUE BRIEF · ISSUE 02 · PIPELINE
The pipeline was full. The quarter missed anyway.
The board deck said three times coverage. The quarter still came in short, and nobody in the room could explain why the math failed. A pipeline is only as honest as what it lets in. When anything a rep wants to count becomes a deal, coverage stops being math and becomes mood. Three times coverage of unqualified pipeline is three times noise.
In the book I tell the story of a construction technology firm that lived this. Plenty of meetings, healthy coverage, and deals that stalled just before close. Their instinct was the common one: push more volume into the top. The data said otherwise. Deals were entering the pipeline without being qualified, then sitting there inflating the forecast. We rebuilt how a lead earned its way in and tightened the first discovery conversation. Close rate moved from 12 percent to 27 percent in six months, with no increase in prospecting volume.
The deeper problem is what gets measured. Calls made, emails sent, meetings booked. Activity numbers are easy to count and they feel like progress, but they only prove the team is busy. The numbers that predict a quarter live one layer down: how leads convert from stage to stage, how long deals take, how fast they move, and what share of qualified deals close.
A second story from the book makes the point from the other side. A financial services firm was generating leads at volume with a close rate under 10 percent. Their referrals and LinkedIn relationships converted well. Their cold email converted almost nothing. Effort was spread across all three as if they were equal. Shifting effort to the channels that converted lifted overall conversion 32 percent in three months. The pipeline had been telling them where revenue came from the whole time. Nobody had asked it.
Before you fund more activity, ask two questions of your own pipeline. What does a deal have to prove before it gets counted? And which channels does the closed business come from? If the answers take more than a day to produce, that is a finding in itself.
This is the second of the five pillars we work in: Predictability, Pipeline, Management, Technology, Growth. We do not coach teams to try harder. We diagnose the engine, rebuild what is broken, and enforce what keeps it running.
Reza Nazarinia, MBA
Founder, The Sales Lab
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More issues
Issue 05 · Growth: You doubled the sales team. Revenue did not follow.
Issue 04 · Technology: The most expensive filing cabinet in the company
Issue 03 · Management: Your best rep is now a manager. The team got worse.
Issue 01 · Predictability: Why the forecast misses in the last week, every quarter
